#Lockdown in shanghai series#

Despite repeated calls from public health experts for a quicker approval of foreign-developed mRNA vaccines in China, the Chinese regulator has so far refused to do so. Moreover, domestically developed inactivated vaccines appear to provide less protection against infection with the Omicron variant than the novel mRNA vaccines developed in the West. Given the weakness of China's health infrastructure, giving up 'zero-COVID-19' could lead to a surge in hospitalizations among the elderly and overwhelm the medical system. Shanghai has one of the highest proportions of elderly in the country, with nearly a quarter of its residents aged 60 or older. While nearly 90 percent of the Chinese population is fully vaccinated, vaccination rates among the elderly are lower: 82 percent for those between 70 and 79 years old, and about 51 percent for those over 80 years old as of mid-March. The Chinese leadership's caution may stem from the fact that the elderly population has low vaccination rates, and domestically developed inactivated vaccines have low efficacy. Vice Premier Sun Chunlan of the State Council is now in Shanghai to ensure local officials fully implement the zero-COVID-19 policy, and the party chief in Shanghai now seems marginalized. The internal frictions among officials over zero-COVID-19 policy and lockdowns were intense in earlier phases of the Shanghai outbreak, but those who advocated taking the outbreak as an opportunity to revise the policy clearly failed to convince the leadership that mass testing and isolation are no longer the most cost-effective solutions serving the best interest of the country. Zero death from COVID-19 has been reported since March, which may have something to do with the Chinese practice of not identifying deaths of most COVID-19 patients with underlying conditions as deaths from the virus. Moreover, only 9 infected patients who have developed severe symptoms are being treated at hospitals, according to the Shanghai Municipal Health Commission.

The Shanghai and Wuhan outbreaks differ significantly in that the majority of those who have contracted the virus in Shanghai have no or mild symptoms-that is to say, 97 percent of the more than 250,000 residents who have tested positive since March.

The idea that the Shanghai outbreak could trigger China to give up 'zero-COVID' is an illusion The Shanghai government is facing not only its most severe public health crisis in decades but also an unprecedented crisis of trust.

#Lockdown in shanghai series#

Deaths from COVID-19 have been rare, but the draconian lockdown measures have led to an increasing number of non-COVID-19 deaths, including a series of incidents in which seriously ill patients died after being denied urgent hospital care. People are running out of food and food prices are skyrocketing. There is now growing discontent among the 25 million residents in Shanghai over how the outbreak and the lockdown are being handled. If that estimate holds, the Chinese government cannot hope to make its already ambitious 5.5 percent growth target for 2022 without extra stimulus.Ĭhina could have used this latest outbreak as an opportunity to revise its zero-COVID-19 policy but has instead chosen to stick with mass testing and isolation regardless of the enormous social and economic costs.

Chinese economists previously estimated a lockdown of this length would cost the country as much as 4 percent of national real income. Shanghai has been under complete lockdown for half a month, as the highly transmissible Omicron variant is contributing to the country's worst COVID-19 outbreak since the initial Wuhan outbreak in early 2020. At a time when the rest of the world has decided to live with the coronavirus, China is sticking to its zero-COVID-19 policy, trying to eliminate the disease at virtually all costs.